There seems to be some good momentum and discussion building at TBP's new site.
Visit pickensplan.com
Thanks
Friday, July 11, 2008
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
How Many Hammers? (Rough Draft)
A friend of mine recently commented that multiple hammers are simultaneously inflicting damage on the U.S. economy, specifically mentioning three: rising gas prices, falling home values, and the federal deficit. Not only is he correct, he is also gently understating the precariousness of our situation.
No matter how you delineate between these intertwined headwinds, we can identify far more than three hammers at work, both now and in the future. I will list a few here.
Hammer #1: Peak Oil
Mountains of data indicate that daily, world-wide extraction of oil from the planet has reached its all-time peak at around 85 mbd. Additionally, it is statistically clear that 85 mbd is not the cap on world thirst. Around the globe, heavily populated nations are giving every indication that, they too, would like a piece of the American Dream. During recent months, consumption of oil has been roughly 87 mbd. This should clearly explain the "surprising" drawdowns of crude inventories we have seen as of late.
If you are the thinking sort, you might see how this does not look good for our immediate and long-term future.
Hammer #2: Peak Oil Becomes Household Word
Think "Tickle-Me Elmo."
Right now, I find that about 1 out of 25 people at the local Little League field has heard of the term "peak oil." When I gently ask the few who have to define it, the most common answer is "it means gas prices are getting too expensive." I don't attempt to hone it any further.
The fact that so few have any clue about the impending energy crisis is one great, big, scary "uh-oh." The phrase "they don't know what hit them" will soon be applicable. But, before the word finally reaches the street, gas will probably cost over $7/gallon; coal, natural gas, and heating oil will have probably doubled (thus electricity doubling as well); food prices will be up dramatically; and the civil unrest arising from a simple choice (feed my kids... heat my home... or buy gas and drive to work) will have shot skyward.
When the masses of middle and low income realize what is happening, they are not going to be happy. And then, they'll "learn" that the trader boys of Wall Street, the politicians, and seven-digit CEOs have already made their exit. At that point, all bets are off regarding our ability to police ourselves.
Hammer #3: Personal Debt
Housing values and currency/commodity adjusted stock portfolios are plummeting. With these paper assets go our retirement plans, life savings, college tuitions, hopes and dreams, beliefs in the magnificent destiny of our country, and our easy-going, peaceful nature. Even more sickening: we are going to have to slow our consumption. It's true. We must begin to sacrifice.
Even if our tax codes penalize us, even if our President urges us, we simply cannot go on shopping. We must sacrifice. Our HELOC's have been withdrawn, our credit cards are maxed, and the hardship withdrawals from our 401k are committed to the utility company.
But sacrifice is easier when shared, right? Well, we'll soon find out.
As we lay-up on our spending, struggling businesses will lay-off their employees. Hopefully, it won't be you or me.
Many who are currently right-side up on their mortgage won't be for long. We are seeing year-over-year depreciation that eclipses the former records set during the first Great Depression. There is no end in sight, only false bottoms and sucker bounces from this point forward. Everyone is going to feel the pain.
Hammer #4: Public Debt
I won't bore with you with statistics that proove that the U.S. Federal Government is broke... and without legitimate options. In short, we have a $57 trillion debt that now grows between $2 and $3 trillion per year.
What's that you say? Those aren't the figures you're familiar with?
True. Our politicians don't include the entitlements to retiring baby-boomers in the official story. They've cooked the books. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are not represented. On January 1, 2008, the first of the bulge generation are expecting their just dues. For the next 30 years, we aim to fulfill our promise to them with... what? Thin air?
It may not matter.
Our more immediate worries are the state governements, local municipalities, school districts, home-owners associations, etc. The problem will occur when the times get tough, then tougher, tougher still, and on into the long emergency. Police, fire, and rescue crews will be reduced; roads will pot-hole into oblivion; and school buses will carry only memories of early morning naps, mid-day field trips, and after-school athletic competitions. Once manicured communities will be forced to rely on the collective initiative of residents to clean the pool, re-roof the clubhouse, and beat back the weeds in the playground. Volunteer neighborhood patrols will become more and more dangerous as those from less fortunate neighborhoods go about foraging for all things of value.
Hammer #5: The Fed's Catch-33
Raise Interest Rates: Further decimate the housing industry and stifle business investment.
Lower Interest Rates: Further decimate the dollar.
Hold Steady: Get lynched by both camps.
Hammer #6: The rest of the world doesn't really care for us.
Remember how much sleep you lost when the Soviet Union collapsed? Can you recall the pain that you felt and the tears you shed for those poor communists? Have you been able to recover the boatloads of cash you sent them so that they could at least feed themselves?
Here's the rub: We represent 5% of the world's population, but we consume about 25% of its energy. When they come up short at the pump, can you imagine them thankful that at least the American's had a good time? They might even feel a little pity that our party is over, no?
Whether we truly were on a mission to "bring Democracy to the Middle East," or we were just making a rather hostile oil grab, the vast majority of the world has long ago decided for themselves.
Point: I don't think we should be counting on any relief from abroad.
Hammer #7: Dollar Collapses
OPEC has been considering a move away from the dollar for many years. With all the world's oil trading in U.S. dollars, a switch to any other currency would tank the U.S. for good. We would experience hyper-inflationary depression almost immediately. Every oil-consuming country in the world buys, holds and spends petrodollars. If OPEC goes to the Euro, for instance, what would China do with all their U.S. currency? Answer: Try to beat India to the bank, who happens to be trying to outrun every other civilized country in the world.
Tough times ahead right?
I will finish throwing hammers around when I return to my keyboard later.
Then... for my final trick... I will explain why I think this is all going to be ok.
No matter how you delineate between these intertwined headwinds, we can identify far more than three hammers at work, both now and in the future. I will list a few here.
Hammer #1: Peak Oil
Mountains of data indicate that daily, world-wide extraction of oil from the planet has reached its all-time peak at around 85 mbd. Additionally, it is statistically clear that 85 mbd is not the cap on world thirst. Around the globe, heavily populated nations are giving every indication that, they too, would like a piece of the American Dream. During recent months, consumption of oil has been roughly 87 mbd. This should clearly explain the "surprising" drawdowns of crude inventories we have seen as of late.
If you are the thinking sort, you might see how this does not look good for our immediate and long-term future.
Hammer #2: Peak Oil Becomes Household Word
Think "Tickle-Me Elmo."
Right now, I find that about 1 out of 25 people at the local Little League field has heard of the term "peak oil." When I gently ask the few who have to define it, the most common answer is "it means gas prices are getting too expensive." I don't attempt to hone it any further.
The fact that so few have any clue about the impending energy crisis is one great, big, scary "uh-oh." The phrase "they don't know what hit them" will soon be applicable. But, before the word finally reaches the street, gas will probably cost over $7/gallon; coal, natural gas, and heating oil will have probably doubled (thus electricity doubling as well); food prices will be up dramatically; and the civil unrest arising from a simple choice (feed my kids... heat my home... or buy gas and drive to work) will have shot skyward.
When the masses of middle and low income realize what is happening, they are not going to be happy. And then, they'll "learn" that the trader boys of Wall Street, the politicians, and seven-digit CEOs have already made their exit. At that point, all bets are off regarding our ability to police ourselves.
Hammer #3: Personal Debt
Housing values and currency/commodity adjusted stock portfolios are plummeting. With these paper assets go our retirement plans, life savings, college tuitions, hopes and dreams, beliefs in the magnificent destiny of our country, and our easy-going, peaceful nature. Even more sickening: we are going to have to slow our consumption. It's true. We must begin to sacrifice.
Even if our tax codes penalize us, even if our President urges us, we simply cannot go on shopping. We must sacrifice. Our HELOC's have been withdrawn, our credit cards are maxed, and the hardship withdrawals from our 401k are committed to the utility company.
But sacrifice is easier when shared, right? Well, we'll soon find out.
As we lay-up on our spending, struggling businesses will lay-off their employees. Hopefully, it won't be you or me.
Many who are currently right-side up on their mortgage won't be for long. We are seeing year-over-year depreciation that eclipses the former records set during the first Great Depression. There is no end in sight, only false bottoms and sucker bounces from this point forward. Everyone is going to feel the pain.
Hammer #4: Public Debt
I won't bore with you with statistics that proove that the U.S. Federal Government is broke... and without legitimate options. In short, we have a $57 trillion debt that now grows between $2 and $3 trillion per year.
What's that you say? Those aren't the figures you're familiar with?
True. Our politicians don't include the entitlements to retiring baby-boomers in the official story. They've cooked the books. Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are not represented. On January 1, 2008, the first of the bulge generation are expecting their just dues. For the next 30 years, we aim to fulfill our promise to them with... what? Thin air?
It may not matter.
Our more immediate worries are the state governements, local municipalities, school districts, home-owners associations, etc. The problem will occur when the times get tough, then tougher, tougher still, and on into the long emergency. Police, fire, and rescue crews will be reduced; roads will pot-hole into oblivion; and school buses will carry only memories of early morning naps, mid-day field trips, and after-school athletic competitions. Once manicured communities will be forced to rely on the collective initiative of residents to clean the pool, re-roof the clubhouse, and beat back the weeds in the playground. Volunteer neighborhood patrols will become more and more dangerous as those from less fortunate neighborhoods go about foraging for all things of value.
Hammer #5: The Fed's Catch-33
Raise Interest Rates: Further decimate the housing industry and stifle business investment.
Lower Interest Rates: Further decimate the dollar.
Hold Steady: Get lynched by both camps.
Hammer #6: The rest of the world doesn't really care for us.
Remember how much sleep you lost when the Soviet Union collapsed? Can you recall the pain that you felt and the tears you shed for those poor communists? Have you been able to recover the boatloads of cash you sent them so that they could at least feed themselves?
Here's the rub: We represent 5% of the world's population, but we consume about 25% of its energy. When they come up short at the pump, can you imagine them thankful that at least the American's had a good time? They might even feel a little pity that our party is over, no?
Whether we truly were on a mission to "bring Democracy to the Middle East," or we were just making a rather hostile oil grab, the vast majority of the world has long ago decided for themselves.
Point: I don't think we should be counting on any relief from abroad.
Hammer #7: Dollar Collapses
OPEC has been considering a move away from the dollar for many years. With all the world's oil trading in U.S. dollars, a switch to any other currency would tank the U.S. for good. We would experience hyper-inflationary depression almost immediately. Every oil-consuming country in the world buys, holds and spends petrodollars. If OPEC goes to the Euro, for instance, what would China do with all their U.S. currency? Answer: Try to beat India to the bank, who happens to be trying to outrun every other civilized country in the world.
Tough times ahead right?
I will finish throwing hammers around when I return to my keyboard later.
Then... for my final trick... I will explain why I think this is all going to be ok.
Thursday, May 22, 2008
Watchdogs?? Are You Kidding Me?
Wall Street Journal
"Energy Watchdog Warns of Oil-Production Crunch"
May 22, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
It's a rare day that I succumb to using vulgur language -- but this is straight-in-your-face bullshit. Honestly, the hairs on my neck are standing.
I understand the critical need for carefully measured words when facing a crisis of this proportion. I'll even support it to a degree.
However, to say that the IEA has warned us is akin to some guy telling you to beware of his dog... as it's knawing-off your left ass cheek, having already shredded both of your arms.
But hey, at least you were warned, right?
Now, imagine laying in a pool of your own blood, and a few other "concerned folks" pass by and tell you to "be cautious around that guy's dog."
Who are these other "concerned folks?"
CERA - Cambridge Energy Research Associates
USGS - United States Geological Survey
EIA - Energy Information Administration (not IEA)
DOE - Department of Energy
AND all your major government/corporate mass media.
From this point forward, we'll watch a parade of excuses and lies spew from these agencies' PR departments. In various forms, they will say that "oil reserves are essentially unknowable and any estimate of actual reserves is, at best, simple guesswork based upon the good-faith proclamations of our friends at OPEC." Hint: they are going to say "who could've known?" and then shift blame.
Blaming OPEC, however, will not be sufficient to recover their credibility. Anyone with internet access and half a will to learn the truth can easily expose a long history of lies, snobberies, and attacks.
Remember, it's one thing to say that you don't know. I can live with that. But that is NOT what they did. Instead, they offered up their scholarly assessments while lifting and shifting their noses as to avoid the stench of any who would disagree with them.
Ever since 1956 - when Shell geologist, M. King Hubbert, first warned us that world-wide production will peak somewhere around the year 2,000 - these agencies have dubbed as wackos anyone who said anything incongruent with the "oil, therefore growth, is limitless" chant. They have thrown a lot of good people under the bus.
There have been plenty of good neighbors attempting to warn you that there is a vicious dog in the neighborhood. However, the local authorities chose to muzzle a long list of guys with names like Hubbert, Deffeyes, Campbell, Hirsch, Simmons, Heinberg, and countless others. It didn't matter that these guys basically dropped their life to learn the facts and sound the alarm. They were to be classified as crazy doomers while the party-line prevailed: buy yourself an SUV.
If you wait around for organiziations like those listed above to give you ample warning... you're not going to make it.
Sorry.
On another note: Congress is considering suing OPEC! Oh, good idea guys. That'll do it.
I've got an even better idea. Why don't "we the people" just sue all of you (Congress and all of your respected agencies) for having put our republic to sleep on this issue for the past 35 years.
"Energy Watchdog Warns of Oil-Production Crunch"
May 22, 2008
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121139527250011387.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
It's a rare day that I succumb to using vulgur language -- but this is straight-in-your-face bullshit. Honestly, the hairs on my neck are standing.
I understand the critical need for carefully measured words when facing a crisis of this proportion. I'll even support it to a degree.
However, to say that the IEA has warned us is akin to some guy telling you to beware of his dog... as it's knawing-off your left ass cheek, having already shredded both of your arms.
But hey, at least you were warned, right?
Now, imagine laying in a pool of your own blood, and a few other "concerned folks" pass by and tell you to "be cautious around that guy's dog."
Who are these other "concerned folks?"
CERA - Cambridge Energy Research Associates
USGS - United States Geological Survey
EIA - Energy Information Administration (not IEA)
DOE - Department of Energy
AND all your major government/corporate mass media.
From this point forward, we'll watch a parade of excuses and lies spew from these agencies' PR departments. In various forms, they will say that "oil reserves are essentially unknowable and any estimate of actual reserves is, at best, simple guesswork based upon the good-faith proclamations of our friends at OPEC." Hint: they are going to say "who could've known?" and then shift blame.
Blaming OPEC, however, will not be sufficient to recover their credibility. Anyone with internet access and half a will to learn the truth can easily expose a long history of lies, snobberies, and attacks.
Remember, it's one thing to say that you don't know. I can live with that. But that is NOT what they did. Instead, they offered up their scholarly assessments while lifting and shifting their noses as to avoid the stench of any who would disagree with them.
Ever since 1956 - when Shell geologist, M. King Hubbert, first warned us that world-wide production will peak somewhere around the year 2,000 - these agencies have dubbed as wackos anyone who said anything incongruent with the "oil, therefore growth, is limitless" chant. They have thrown a lot of good people under the bus.
There have been plenty of good neighbors attempting to warn you that there is a vicious dog in the neighborhood. However, the local authorities chose to muzzle a long list of guys with names like Hubbert, Deffeyes, Campbell, Hirsch, Simmons, Heinberg, and countless others. It didn't matter that these guys basically dropped their life to learn the facts and sound the alarm. They were to be classified as crazy doomers while the party-line prevailed: buy yourself an SUV.
If you wait around for organiziations like those listed above to give you ample warning... you're not going to make it.
Sorry.
On another note: Congress is considering suing OPEC! Oh, good idea guys. That'll do it.
I've got an even better idea. Why don't "we the people" just sue all of you (Congress and all of your respected agencies) for having put our republic to sleep on this issue for the past 35 years.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Hirsch & Pickens, CNBC, 5-20-08
Two of the worlds's foremost oil experts say Peak Oil has arrived on CNBC Squawk Box.
Robert Hirsch - thought by many to be too conservative on issues regarding peak oil - is predicting gas prices to hit $12-$15 soon.
Boone Pickens - often called the Oracle of Oil - says that we have reached maximum world wide production at 85 mil bbl/day.
See videos.
Robert Hirsch: http://youtube.com/watch?v=IWGsnW_NnxE
Boone Pickens: http://youtube.com/watch?v=jngHfYFs9L8
I can't think of two more credible voices in this debate.
Robert Hirsch - thought by many to be too conservative on issues regarding peak oil - is predicting gas prices to hit $12-$15 soon.
Boone Pickens - often called the Oracle of Oil - says that we have reached maximum world wide production at 85 mil bbl/day.
See videos.
Robert Hirsch: http://youtube.com/watch?v=IWGsnW_NnxE
Boone Pickens: http://youtube.com/watch?v=jngHfYFs9L8
I can't think of two more credible voices in this debate.
Saturday, May 17, 2008
Bush's Body Language
Did you see it?
Did you see the newsreel showing our President sitting down with the Saudi King?
Body language tells a great deal. It was clearly evident who held the power and who was subordinate. The King sat relaxed, upright, and regal. The President shifted nervously in his seat, looking like a junior high school science fair participant who was trying to win-over a judge.
It didn't work. He went pleading for an increase in oil production, but he left with no such thing.
Or..., maybe the meeting was a huge success.
Put yourself in the Saudi throne. If you held the lifeblood of a foreign country in your hand that sold for $125/bbl. today, would you ramp up, sell more, and deplete faster? Or, would you consider cutting production, sell it at $200/bbl., and stretch supply into the future where you can fetch $500/bbl.?
Simple logic (plus a little understanding of the economic hornets' nest under the throne) indicates that the U.S. still holds considerable sway. But the brown-nosing routine shows that our power is fading fast.
Read: http://energybulletin.net/44316.html
As you read, ask yourself two questions:
1) Why would the U.S. pledge to help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear energy program?
2) Why would Saudi Arabia refuse production increases when the world's mightiest military surrounds them?
If you need help with the answer... it's because they are pumping crude at or near capacity now, and face steep production declines in the near future. The much dreaded "Twilight in the Desert" has arrived.
Did you see the newsreel showing our President sitting down with the Saudi King?
Body language tells a great deal. It was clearly evident who held the power and who was subordinate. The King sat relaxed, upright, and regal. The President shifted nervously in his seat, looking like a junior high school science fair participant who was trying to win-over a judge.
It didn't work. He went pleading for an increase in oil production, but he left with no such thing.
Or..., maybe the meeting was a huge success.
Put yourself in the Saudi throne. If you held the lifeblood of a foreign country in your hand that sold for $125/bbl. today, would you ramp up, sell more, and deplete faster? Or, would you consider cutting production, sell it at $200/bbl., and stretch supply into the future where you can fetch $500/bbl.?
Simple logic (plus a little understanding of the economic hornets' nest under the throne) indicates that the U.S. still holds considerable sway. But the brown-nosing routine shows that our power is fading fast.
Read: http://energybulletin.net/44316.html
As you read, ask yourself two questions:
1) Why would the U.S. pledge to help Saudi Arabia develop a nuclear energy program?
2) Why would Saudi Arabia refuse production increases when the world's mightiest military surrounds them?
If you need help with the answer... it's because they are pumping crude at or near capacity now, and face steep production declines in the near future. The much dreaded "Twilight in the Desert" has arrived.
Friday, May 16, 2008
Ex-Fed Chief Issues Dire Euphamism
New York Times
May 15, 2008
Paul Volcker, Fed Chief under Carter and Reagan, has issued a dire warning: U.S. faces 70's style inflation.
His imposing shadow (Ex-Fed Chief, founding member of Trilateral Commission, current seat in the Group of Thirty..., not to mention that he stands closer to seven feet than to six), with one foot in NYC and the other in DC, stretches clear around the globe. Not many who have walked this earth have had more access to money, power and influence than Volcker. This all to say, "When this guy speaks, you better listen."
Here's the scary part. The Chair (past or current) of the Federal Reserve is NOT allowed to speak so frankly. They are supposed to say that an "all-hell-is-breaking-loose-right-now crisis" is "a matter of some concern that must be monitored over the forseeable future."
After reading the article from the New York Times, I went back to re-read a piece from shadowstats.com with a new level of interest. After combining the two articles, it dawned on me that Mr. Volcker's skill in the use of euphamism is firmly intact.
I doubt I will be able to sleep tonight.
NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15joint.html?ref=patrick.net
ShadowStats.com article: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
May 15, 2008
Paul Volcker, Fed Chief under Carter and Reagan, has issued a dire warning: U.S. faces 70's style inflation.
His imposing shadow (Ex-Fed Chief, founding member of Trilateral Commission, current seat in the Group of Thirty..., not to mention that he stands closer to seven feet than to six), with one foot in NYC and the other in DC, stretches clear around the globe. Not many who have walked this earth have had more access to money, power and influence than Volcker. This all to say, "When this guy speaks, you better listen."
Here's the scary part. The Chair (past or current) of the Federal Reserve is NOT allowed to speak so frankly. They are supposed to say that an "all-hell-is-breaking-loose-right-now crisis" is "a matter of some concern that must be monitored over the forseeable future."
After reading the article from the New York Times, I went back to re-read a piece from shadowstats.com with a new level of interest. After combining the two articles, it dawned on me that Mr. Volcker's skill in the use of euphamism is firmly intact.
I doubt I will be able to sleep tonight.
NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/business/15joint.html?ref=patrick.net
ShadowStats.com article: http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Donald Trump, Boone Pickens on U.S. Economy
May 15, 2008
CNBC Squawk Box
Donald Trump, interviewed on this morning's Squawk Box, indicated that he was bullish on the world economy as a whole, but bearish on the U.S. economy. "With oil at $50 a barrel, we are headed for recession, at prices much higher than that we're heading for a depression, and we've got oil at $125/bbl.," he warned.
Billionaire oil magnate Boone Pickens, also interviewed this morning, announced that he was purchasing 667 wind turbines from General Electric at a cost of $2 Billion for his Texas based Mesa Power. These turbines will cover 400,000 acres in the Texas panhandle and provide enough power to serve 300,000 average homes. By 2015, Mesa Power expects to have 2,500 turbines on-line. "Oil is phasing out and renewables are coming in," he said. "And I want to be a part of it."
Pickens also weighed in on today's crude oil landscape. "Of the 85 million barrels of oil produced each day, OPEC provides about 31 million barrels. World demand is 87 million barrels per day, and the world is only capable of producing 85 million barrels (per day). If your capped off at 85, now 85 won't cover 87, so the only way this work's out is price has to kill demand. We've been down this trail before, but it's becoming more and more obvious what the world is up against."
He continues, "What we've done here in the U.S. is go deeper and deeper in the hole. We're spending $600 Billion per year on imported oil. We've more or less said 'keep sending us more oil, never mind the cost. That's where we are now, we are in a trap."
CNBC Squawk Box
Donald Trump, interviewed on this morning's Squawk Box, indicated that he was bullish on the world economy as a whole, but bearish on the U.S. economy. "With oil at $50 a barrel, we are headed for recession, at prices much higher than that we're heading for a depression, and we've got oil at $125/bbl.," he warned.
Billionaire oil magnate Boone Pickens, also interviewed this morning, announced that he was purchasing 667 wind turbines from General Electric at a cost of $2 Billion for his Texas based Mesa Power. These turbines will cover 400,000 acres in the Texas panhandle and provide enough power to serve 300,000 average homes. By 2015, Mesa Power expects to have 2,500 turbines on-line. "Oil is phasing out and renewables are coming in," he said. "And I want to be a part of it."
Pickens also weighed in on today's crude oil landscape. "Of the 85 million barrels of oil produced each day, OPEC provides about 31 million barrels. World demand is 87 million barrels per day, and the world is only capable of producing 85 million barrels (per day). If your capped off at 85, now 85 won't cover 87, so the only way this work's out is price has to kill demand. We've been down this trail before, but it's becoming more and more obvious what the world is up against."
He continues, "What we've done here in the U.S. is go deeper and deeper in the hole. We're spending $600 Billion per year on imported oil. We've more or less said 'keep sending us more oil, never mind the cost. That's where we are now, we are in a trap."
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
James Howard Kunstler Interviewed by Glenn Beck
May 13, 2008
Glenn Beck, CNN
James Howard Kunstler, author of "The Long Emergency" and "World Made by Hand," appeared on CNN's Glenn Beck last night.
Kunstler's books paint a pretty stark future for all of us. Personally, I find his books to be fascinating, insightful, and prophetic. However, many see him as an angry fellow, long hoping for civilization's demise.
There is one thing that cannot be argued though: He will soon be a household name as the "Peak Oil" debate begins to supplant "Global Warming" as the most critical issue facing our world.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2008/05/14/beck.life.oil.cnn?iref=videosearch
See video (endure 15 sec. advertisement).
Glenn Beck, CNN
James Howard Kunstler, author of "The Long Emergency" and "World Made by Hand," appeared on CNN's Glenn Beck last night.
Kunstler's books paint a pretty stark future for all of us. Personally, I find his books to be fascinating, insightful, and prophetic. However, many see him as an angry fellow, long hoping for civilization's demise.
There is one thing that cannot be argued though: He will soon be a household name as the "Peak Oil" debate begins to supplant "Global Warming" as the most critical issue facing our world.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/bestoftv/2008/05/14/beck.life.oil.cnn?iref=videosearch
See video (endure 15 sec. advertisement).
Friday, May 9, 2008
Orlando Housing Outlook Bleek
CNNMoney.com
May 8, 2008
Orlando housing market to fall 21% within the next 12 months according to CNN Money. The only two U.S. cities to be hit harder are Miami and Ft. Lauderdale.
If gas prices continue to escalate, the tourism industry will suffer. Orlando, with an economy greatly dependent on inflows of travelers, could face even more trouble than the study suggests.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/real_estate/100_forecast.moneymag/index.htm
Article takes several seconds to fully load.
May 8, 2008
Orlando housing market to fall 21% within the next 12 months according to CNN Money. The only two U.S. cities to be hit harder are Miami and Ft. Lauderdale.
If gas prices continue to escalate, the tourism industry will suffer. Orlando, with an economy greatly dependent on inflows of travelers, could face even more trouble than the study suggests.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/real_estate/100_forecast.moneymag/index.htm
Article takes several seconds to fully load.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Supply? Demand? Speculation? Falling Dollar?...
The debate continues: Why is the price of crude up over 80% year over year?
Does it matter??
Whatever the reason, the bottom line is that Americans are now paying around $3.50 per gallon of gasoline. What's more disconcerting is that an 80% annual increase in the cost of crude means, if it continues, that we will pay around $7.00 per gallon by this time next year.
Scary stuff.
Our food supply is nothing more than an exchange of hydrocarbon energy for caloric fuel. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to make the correlation between the rise in crude and escalating food prices.
Roughly 85% of our nation's electricity is provided by hydrocarbon exchange. If the price of fuel for your auto goes up, so will your electricity bill.
Thank goodness our leaders decoupled food and energy from the Consumer Price Index. If they hadn't done that, we'd be facing hyper-sonic inflation, wouldn't we?
I won't bore you any further. It should be more than evident by now that your life will change dramatically in the near future... IF... crude prices continue to rise at an 80% clip.
Meanwhile, please view blatently false assertions that rising gas prices represent only a small fraction of the family budget for what they are: nerve gas.
So the big question is... Are we going to see crude prices up another 80% a year from now?
It's probable... and the resultant shock to our way of life in the U.S. would be incalculable.
Supply
Field after field, nation after nation, and region after regions are reaching and passing their production peaks, and unable to deliver an increase in supply at any cost.
Demand
In the past, the U.S. alone could kill price through demand destruction. Those days are gone. Developing countries around the globe have more than enough appetite to consume what we leave on the table.
Speculation
If the real estate market is collapsing, the banks are freezing up, the government is hiding inflation, and it's difficult for your children to ingest precious metals... then, of course, there is going to be speculation. Can you blame anyone for buying food and energy futures?
Falling Dollar
Oil is transacted in US dollars only. Therefore, as the value of the dollar declines, we Americans continue to pay more and more for crude while all other countries continue to exchange their currencies for ever-increasing volumes of petrodollars.
All of the Above
For the average American, the actual battle no longer matters. It's all the same. The price is too high, the line is too long, and dollars in his pocket are vanishing in value.
Nothing will change in the near future for several reasons:
1) OPEC is refusing to tap their "all-powerful" reserve production capacities (at $120/bl, it is not foolish to wonder if they even exist);
2)the collection of non-OPEC oil producing countries are deep into perfectly provable permanent states of production declines;
3)India, China, and other rapidly developing countries stand more than ready to pick up any slack in crude supplies;
4)The de-coupling of the US economy from the rest of the world is happening much faster than many of us realize and we are not the 800 lb. gorilla of consumption we once were;
5)OPEC is not stupid, they are manning the production throttle closely as they shift gears away from the US economy and into those of the developing world;
6) OPEC countries do not love us.
None of these are good new.
Whatever the base problem is - supply, demand, speculation, falling dollar - there are even more powerful players still standing on the sideline. On the side of hope is Innovation; on the side of fear is Panic.
The future of world will be decided when these two clash.
Does it matter??
Whatever the reason, the bottom line is that Americans are now paying around $3.50 per gallon of gasoline. What's more disconcerting is that an 80% annual increase in the cost of crude means, if it continues, that we will pay around $7.00 per gallon by this time next year.
Scary stuff.
Our food supply is nothing more than an exchange of hydrocarbon energy for caloric fuel. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to make the correlation between the rise in crude and escalating food prices.
Roughly 85% of our nation's electricity is provided by hydrocarbon exchange. If the price of fuel for your auto goes up, so will your electricity bill.
Thank goodness our leaders decoupled food and energy from the Consumer Price Index. If they hadn't done that, we'd be facing hyper-sonic inflation, wouldn't we?
I won't bore you any further. It should be more than evident by now that your life will change dramatically in the near future... IF... crude prices continue to rise at an 80% clip.
Meanwhile, please view blatently false assertions that rising gas prices represent only a small fraction of the family budget for what they are: nerve gas.
So the big question is... Are we going to see crude prices up another 80% a year from now?
It's probable... and the resultant shock to our way of life in the U.S. would be incalculable.
Supply
Field after field, nation after nation, and region after regions are reaching and passing their production peaks, and unable to deliver an increase in supply at any cost.
Demand
In the past, the U.S. alone could kill price through demand destruction. Those days are gone. Developing countries around the globe have more than enough appetite to consume what we leave on the table.
Speculation
If the real estate market is collapsing, the banks are freezing up, the government is hiding inflation, and it's difficult for your children to ingest precious metals... then, of course, there is going to be speculation. Can you blame anyone for buying food and energy futures?
Falling Dollar
Oil is transacted in US dollars only. Therefore, as the value of the dollar declines, we Americans continue to pay more and more for crude while all other countries continue to exchange their currencies for ever-increasing volumes of petrodollars.
All of the Above
For the average American, the actual battle no longer matters. It's all the same. The price is too high, the line is too long, and dollars in his pocket are vanishing in value.
Nothing will change in the near future for several reasons:
1) OPEC is refusing to tap their "all-powerful" reserve production capacities (at $120/bl, it is not foolish to wonder if they even exist);
2)the collection of non-OPEC oil producing countries are deep into perfectly provable permanent states of production declines;
3)India, China, and other rapidly developing countries stand more than ready to pick up any slack in crude supplies;
4)The de-coupling of the US economy from the rest of the world is happening much faster than many of us realize and we are not the 800 lb. gorilla of consumption we once were;
5)OPEC is not stupid, they are manning the production throttle closely as they shift gears away from the US economy and into those of the developing world;
6) OPEC countries do not love us.
None of these are good new.
Whatever the base problem is - supply, demand, speculation, falling dollar - there are even more powerful players still standing on the sideline. On the side of hope is Innovation; on the side of fear is Panic.
The future of world will be decided when these two clash.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Across the Great Divide
It's gone away - yesterday.Now I find myself on the mountainside,
Where the rivers change direction
Across the Great Divide.
Nanci Griffith's song, Across the Great Divide (http://youtube.com/watch?v=7i2AFRX-z0I) has always meant a day in the future for me.
But no longer.
Yesterday, now gone away, was my 42nd birthday. It symbolically marks the passing of the first half of my life. Call it a personal "peak" if you will.
As of today, I now have no option to scale back up, or to even linger at the summit. I am compelled by the laws of life and time to begin the long, steady descent down the other side. After 42 years of incessant bickering and fighting, Gravity and I have settled the bulk of our disputes and thus pledge to work peacefully together - well... at least we've agreed that we're headed in the same direction.
What bothers me is that she finally got her way.
And so it is also with her sister, Entropy. She gets her way, too, only she's exceedingly pompous about her skills of persuasion. She'll promise an eventual breakdown of all things, and laugh all the while doing it.
And now my point...
With the exertion and expenditure of energy, both of these sisters can be subdued for a while. However, there comes that dreadful day when all peoples, animals, plants, and systems begin to gradually recognize their fate.
Somewhere along this line of cognoscence is where we stand as a collective human race. Oh sure, we've had random synaptic firings that preceded and eventually formed our 'hallucinatory' theories, but this time it's different.
We are recognizing our summit.
Given that the sisters always get their way, I propose that we make nice with them.
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